“Impeachment Without Conviction”: Here are the Five Alternative Scenarios for Trump’s Future Presidency

Authored by Philip Marey, Senior US strategist at Rabobank

Summary

  • The Democrats in the House of Representatives have decided to start impeachment proceedings against President Trump. While impeachment is possible as the Democrats have a majority in the House of Representatives, conviction is unlikely as long as the Republicans in the Senate continue to support their President. In this case the removal of President Trump from office is unlikely, neither by conviction nor by the 25th Amendment.
  • What’s more, history suggests that it will be a challenge for the Democrats to complete the process of impeachment & conviction before Election Day 2020. And then there is – at least as things stand now – virtually no chance of conviction. Consequently, it is unlikely to affect who is on the Republican ticket for the presidential elections in 2020.
  • However, it will set the tone for the election campaign. In fact, it could even backfire on the Democrats as it may energize Trump voters to go to the polls. Meanwhile, the impeachment theme may overshadow any political message that the Democrats might want to sell to the electorate. What’s more, Democratic candidate Joe Biden may not come out of this process unscathed. This would strengthen the position of the remaining leading candidates in the Democratic primaries, which are far more left-wing than Biden. While this strengthens the position of the left wing in the Democratic Party, it may scare away centrist voters on Election Day. Since impeachability is a political decision rather than a legal matter, history will tell whether starting an impeachment inquiry was the right decision for the Democrats.
  • Impeachment proceedings and the related further deterioration of the US domestic political climate add to the range of factors that are creating the uncertainty for the economic outlook that the Fed is monitoring closely. What’s more, they reduce the chance of meaningful fiscal policy legislation. Therefore, a third insurance cut before the end of the year – which is already in our baseline forecast – has become more likely. It also makes our forecast of a recession in 2020 and the Fed cutting all the way back to zero before the end of next year more likely

Introduction

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11 thoughts on ““Impeachment Without Conviction”: Here are the Five Alternative Scenarios for Trump’s Future Presidency”

  1. Duff is one dude I never, ever trusted. He’s a Democratic insider and is bold and proud of that fact. He has blind hatred for Trump. Also, his insulting comment on Paul Craig Roberts, a true-blue Patriot and America lover was way below the belt. Duff insults and excoriates anybody who doesn’t “know” as much as he does, he’s really a disgrace, but thinks he God’s gift.
    Also, never forget the past record of Billy Barr. Barr is dirty through and through, he is very bad news and worked in CIA with Mueller the Mule early in his career. He’s a dangerous operative, Trump has to watch his step around this guy. He needs to be jettisoned NOW. Bad things can only come from working with Barr. Danger!!

  2. Trump is going to win in a landslide. Biden will quit the race soon, he was going to lose soon without Ukrainegate. Hunter is screwed, he is really going to have to hide. The Dems are helping Trump win, this latest trick is so phony, only the lying mainstream media is for it, EVERYONE else sees it for the political lie it is. They KNOW Biden blackmailed Ukraine to help his son steal money. One thing is getting more sure, more people hate the lying mainstream media more than ever. They are lower than child rapists and murderers.

  3. Here it is, once again…the Dems accusing Trump of what they have done.themselves ……hey, idiots…it’s not working any longer….YOU have been caught too many times using this ‘technique’!

    FIRED UKRANIAN PROSECUTOR’S TESTIMONY.

    BOOOOM! THE FOLLOWING IS CONFIRMED ACCURATE. THIS NEEDS TO GO VIRAL FOLKS, HERE IS THE TESTIMONY OF THE PROSECUTOR BIDEN GOT FIRED. The entire most relevant portion is now posted below, READ IT ALL, it is solid gold.

    https://www.scribd.com/document/427618359/Shokin-Statement

    1. And more from Jim Stone that could scare the hell outta us…..

      Big troubles ahead
      There is an obvious coup underway and whoever wins is going to determine whether or not we have a future. America has gone full blown banana republic, as shown by this statement from Trump:

      “Rep. Adam Schiff fraudulently read to Congress, with millions of people watching, a version of my conversation with the President of Ukraine that doesn’t exist. He was supposedly reading the exact transcribed version of the call, but he completely changed the words to make it……….sound horrible, an me sound guilty. HE WAS DESPERATE AND HE GOT CAUGHT. Adam Schiff therefore lied to Congress and attempted to defraud the American Public. He has been doing this for two years. I am calling for him to immediately resign from Congress based on this fraud!

      My comment: Fat chance he will resign, and fat chance Trump has anyone available that will enforce the law and take out Schiff. You can’t just haul off and read a lie like that in Congress unless the system is subverted, if it was not, Schiff would have already hung. In better days, he’d have been hung within hours, or shot on sight. You just can’t do what Schiff did. Yet he did, and he got away with it.

      This does not bode well for America. Enforcement of rule of law may be so dead already that no matter what is revealed, nothing will happen. It is beginning to appear like the communist takeover of America was completed a while ago, and “progress” towards communism is going to proceed come hell or high water, at whatever pace it takes to keep the frog from jumping until it is boiled.

      WE ARE DAMN CLOSE.

  4. Even Jim Stone is befuddled:

    Wait a minute, I can’t put my finger on this – Are they really still going to try to impeach Trump after that transcript release??!!??
    I can’t figure out if I am reading regurgitated crap or if they really are going to proceed with this and raise on a busted flush. WTF, over??!!??

    Here’s the bottom line folks: If they proceed with this impeachment and they somehow via abject corruption make it happen, you had damn well better consider these captures.
    This is the only way America will be going if they impeach Trump – Trump really is who is holding it all back and the left has made it’s intentions VERY CLEAR with it’s open hatred for white America.
    Is this what the report at Deagel.com is talking about?

    http://82.221.129.208/.wb1.html

  5. Revealing quote from a new PCR article on ZH:

    The ultimate purpose of the constant attacks on Trump is to teach the American voters that electing a president who is disapproved by the Establishment is futile. The Establishment simply will not permit any change and will frustrate and destroy any president not selected by them as a candidate.

    This is the real way so-called “American democracy” works. The establishment guides the selection of the Democrat and Republican candidates. Whichever wins, the Establishment wins. This didn’t happen in Trump’s case, and so he has to be prevented from altering the Establishment’s agendas.

  6. Can someone please explain why a dozen people in the WH who heard the famous Ukraine phone call would rush to tell this anonymous person the details of the President’s call so he could write a Complaint to the Congress??? [We now understand that the writer is a CIA agent placed into the WH to spy on the President.]

    The entire Complaint sounds fake.

    1. This current political theater about the Phone Call is just the latest pulled out of the Democrats bottomless bag of tricks. So many of their previous attempts to oust Trump failed so now they are trying this.

      It is all based on lies and deepest deceptions and definitely Treason.

      One quality I see in this latest attempt is a desperateness, a go-for-broke, all or nothing last-ditch, thrashing and flailing effort. THEY MUST win in destroying America or else, if America stands and still has some semblance of rule of law and the Constitution, THEY will all spend the remainder of their lives in prison or hopefully some to the gallows.

      _______________

      From John Adams to Massachusetts Militia, 11 October 1798

      Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious People. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other.

      ___________________

      We are hearing some inspiring words from the president at the U N, but I want to look at ACTION and am coming up empty.

      James 1:23-25

      For if anyone is a hearer of the word and not a doer, he is like a man who looks intently at his natural face in a mirror. For he looks at himself and goes away and at once forgets what he was like. But the one who looks into the perfect law, the law of liberty, and perseveres, being no hearer who forgets but a doer who acts, he will be blessed in his doing.

  7. Here’s a comment that sums up my feelings fairly well:

    Here is some advice for Mr. Trump. I expect you have plenty of advisors, but I bet none of them have put this bug in your ear. Mr. Trump, you seem like a nice guy, a bit naïve maybe, but it does seem like you are too trusting. One of your first mistakes, was to leave any of the Obama appointees in places of authority. That’s bit you in the ***. Secondly, you have alienated a lot of your base, but siding with the very ones you promised us you would hold to account, i.e., Wall Street, The Fed, bankers, et al. Now, you’ve gotten yourself in quite a fix. So, here’s some advice, you may take it for what it’s worth. You are going to have to go into almost full dictator mode, and develop and implement a “scorched earth” policy, in dealing with these putrid pieces of ****, who would seek to bring you down, and our nation with you. If you haven’t come to the conclusion, now is the time to do so, that we really face no threat from Iran, China, Venezuela, Syria, or wherever else may be the case, no, the greatest threat to the survival of our nation, is from the people you pass in the hallways everyday. Those addicted to power, control, and corruption for their own personal gain. You have a military at your disposal, and if that is not enough, you have at your fingertips a vast army of patriots, who only await your call. You have our number Mr. President, or at least I’m pretty sure you can get it. We’ll be waiting for your call.

    Sincerely,

    One who does not find this **** funny anymore.

  8. Ever heard of Joel Harding? I didn’t until today, A excerpt from TheSaker.is article titled The Terrorists Among US – The Coup Against the Presidency. Former Green Beret Joel Harding pioneered IO for the US military. In 2012, he took his expertise, the core of regime change, to the extreme for Ukrainian nationalists inside the State Department and in the US Ukrainian Diaspora.Harding revolutionized regime change by asking the crucial question; What if we did this at a whole nation level? Next Generation Regime Change. What you are about to see is literally the cutting edge of US military regime change. Check out the story: https://thesaker.is/the-terrorists-among-us-the-coup-against-the-presidency/

    1. So, here we have a former SEAL working to unseat a US President. Am I wrong? Is this not treason? Why is this guy still free? Maybe this arsehole is behind Duff’s recent treasonous article, eh?

      How good can he be if HRC didn’t get in?

      What the hell is going on in this country?
      Can anyone make sense of this?

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